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Offshore Bets

As export-oriented Chinese manufacturers offshore production in response to tariff regimes, experts see deeper integration of regional and global supply chains

By Xu Ming Updated Feb.1

Jin Gang, a plastics manufacturer in Zhejiang Province, never thought of building a plant overseas until it became harder to export his goods. But after struggling for two years with mounting pressure from his US clients, at the end of 2022 he decided to move part of his operation to Vietnam. The clients no longer wanted to buy direct from China. Some cut orders by 50 percent, Jin said. “We had no choice,” Jin, who has been exporting for 20 years, told NewsChina.  

Jin is among the many Chinese export-oriented small- and medium-sized manufacturers to offshore partly or wholly to Southeast Asian and other countries to save their businesses. They were the first to suffer after Sino-US trade tensions developed in 2018, which were then exacerbated by years of Covid lockdowns after 2020.  

Many companies relocated due to client pressure. When multinational giants like Apple diversify operations to countries like Vietnam and India, contractors like Foxconn, Wistron and Luxshare follow. The countless suppliers that depend on these contractors have to move as well.  

You must adapt to survive, several companies NewsChina interviewed said.  

Offshoring, though a passive and an individual choice at first, is becoming an important driving force for economic integration in Asia and enhancing China’s position in the regional industrial chain, noted Chai Haitao, a former Ministry of Commerce official and now senior researcher with Beijing-based think tank Center for China & Globalization (CCG).  

Way Out 
Increased tariffs, political bias against Chinese-made products and the three-year Covid lockdown, all of which impacted global trade, are commonly cited as the main reasons behind the shift.  

Jin Gang’s plastics enterprise, with an annual output value of 200 million yuan (US$28m), is a market leader in Zhejiang Province. Their products are used in everything from cups and screens to cellphones and computers. His business is entirely export-oriented.  

He started to feel the chill about two years ago. Some US clients put pressure on him to open factories in Vietnam or risk losing orders. “That’s the only way out for us as our domestic business was zero. As a medium-sized business, we couldn’t have continued without orders from abroad,” Zhao said.  

Jin spent about 5 million yuan (US$697,730) to build a plant in Ho Chi Minh City at the end of 2022. They are still moving materials and equipment. “The clients have confidence in us now after seeing we have a factory there and they promised to give us new orders,” Jin said. The Vietnam facility now accounts for about 20 percent of his company’s total capacity and provides 20 local jobs.  

Zhu Xingbing, manager of Bonsen, an office and household supplies manufacturer based in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, told NewsChina they went to Vietnam before the additional tariffs were levied in 2018.  

“At that time there were already increased duties for some household products. We bet our products would be put on the list soon,” Zhu said. The company, which mainly exports to Europe and the US, built a factory in 2018 in Hai Duong, Vietnam, becoming the first in the industry to manufacture products abroad. It also serves as an OEM and ODM factory for Chinese companies back home.  

“If the products are made in China, they [European and US clients] simply ignore your talk about orders. It’s not about the prices or tariffs. There’s prejudice against Chinese-made products,” Zhu said.  

“Our clients were told they would be dropped once alternative suppliers were found in Southeast Asia. American companies that have close links with the government or involve government purchasing are particularly clear about that,” said Wang Li, CEO of 1Station Vietnam Co, Ltd, a consulting and information platform based in Hanoi.  

“Many companies rely on clients in Europe and the US. If they didn’t relocate, they would have to shut down,” said Zhao Bin, president of the Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Park in eastern Thailand, which was built in 2006 and is home to over 200 Chinese companies.  

Workers changing shift wait in trafffc near PT.Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Morowali, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, August 2, 2023 (Photo by VCG))

Vietnamese workers on a production line at a Bonsen factory, Hai Duong, Vietnam, December 2023 (Photo Courtesy of Zhu Xingbing)

Migration Season
Zhou Heng, manager of Dinghua Consulting Company based in Vietnam, has helped 80 companies of all sizes relocate to Vietnam. He told NewsChina the number of companies coming to Vietnam to research locations surged in 2023 after Covid travel restrictions were lifted. In the first half of 2023, he was seeing 20 clients a month. Eight percent of his total clients eventually decided to open a branch in Vietnam.  

“In previous years, it was only 3 percent,” said Zhou. “It’s a big proportion, considering that many people like me are doing this business here.”  

Zhou told NewsChina that his business first surged in 2019, before the Covid-19 outbreak. In the second half of 2021, companies started the process again. “Many companies just moved a small part of their production to test the waters,” said Zhou, who started the business in 2017. 

After the Sino-US trade conflict began, many electronics companies, particularly from Guangdong Province, and their suppliers shifted some production to Vietnam, Zhou said. In recent years, more and more companies from Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces followed.  

As of August 2023, more than 40 listed Chinese companies based in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province had invested in Vietnam, according to a survey by Wang Li’s company. He estimated there were around 300 listed Chinese companies in Vietnam by December 2023, as well as countless SMEs. In the first seven months of 2023, China ranked third in registered investment, with over US$2.33 billion invested in Vietnam, accounting for 14.4 percent of the total and rising 77.8 percent year-on-year, according to Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment.  

Besides Vietnam, which has become a top investment destination for Chinese companies for its advantages in transportation and tariffs, as well as preferential tax policies, countries like Thailand, Indonesia and Mexico, one of the US’s top three trading partners along with Canada and China, are attracting more and more Chinese manufacturers.  

Zhao Bin noticed an obvious increase in the number of companies in his industrial park in Thailand in the first half of 2023. He puts it down to delayed relocations due to Covid restrictions, and because companies in Europe and the US want to enhance supply chain resilience and security.  

Yet, according to a first-quarter outlook report released by HSBC in January 2023, the increased tariffs on Chinese-made products are pushing production to other Asian countries – friendshoring – instead of onshoring to the US.  

Giants’ Steps 
“Before the trade conflict, the relocation was sporadic, involving only a few industries. Now it has expanded to more and more industries,” Wang Li said.  

Companies in low-end industries like clothing, toys, textiles and plastics were the first to arrive in Vietnam in the early 2000s. Industries like electronics, electromechanical equipment, electric tools, electrical vehicles and photovoltaics (PV) followed, Zhou said. For example, there are 171 Chinese funded projects in Bac Giang Province, 50 kilometers away from Hanoi, including PV production lines, making China the largest source of foreign direct investment in the province, according to the Party newspaper People’s Daily.  

Zhou noticed an increase in the number of upstream manufacturers as place of origin rules for raw materials have grown stricter in certain industries in some Asian countries.  

“In the PV industry, more and more companies began expanding production of raw materials, including silicon wafers in Vietnam, to comply with US Commerce Department requirements,” Wang Li said.  

In August 2023, the US finalized a decision to impose import duties on solar panel products manufactured by Chinese companies in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. But it will not take effect until June 2024 to give more time to domestic manufacturers to ramp up. Companies will have to produce wafers and other key components outside China to prove they are not circumventing tariffs. “This has directly caused a surge in raw material production in those Asian countries. Some Chinese companies even built plants in the US to play it safe,” Wang said.  

In recent years, many Chinese furniture makers established factories in Mexico after the US levied extra tariffs on China-made household products in 2019. The relocated capacity is also getting increasingly higher-end. Chinese companies in the Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Park mainly manufactured auto and motorcycle parts at first. Now emerging industries such as new energy and electronic components have arrived, Zhao said. Chinese investment in high-tech, information and telecommunication, new energy and e-commerce is rising significantly in Vietnam, the People’s Daily report says.  

Many go in step with international giants at the top of the value chain. By 2022, 30 of Samsung’s core suppliers, including Shenzhen-headquartered AAC Technologies and Dongguan-based Goertek, had established factories in Vietnam. Below these big suppliers are a large number of SMEs who rely on these big companies. It is the same with the relocation of Foxconn, Apple’s biggest supplier, to India and Vietnam.  

Cambodian workers leave for the day, Sihanoukville Special Economy Zone, a landmark project of the Belt and Road Initiative, Cambodia, May 2023 (Photos by VCG)

Pictured is Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Park located 115 kilometers outside Bangkok, Thailand, April 2019 (Photos by VCG)

Deja Vu? 
“This kind of shift happens every few decades, which is inevitable,” Chai Haitao told NewsChina. “China’s global network production will gradually surpass its GDP, as with developed countries.” 

After World War II, international companies started the globalization process to optimize efficiency and profit. This caused three big-scale labor-intensive industrial transfers – first from the US to Japan and Germany in the 1950s and 1960s, then from Japan to Asian developing economies between the 1970s and 1990s, then from developed countries to China since the 1980s. “The last transfer lasted for over 30 years and allowed China to build up its status as a global manufacturing power,” Chai said.  

“This type of shift is symbolic of economic globalization. Labor, land cost, infrastructure and industry type affect the direction of the transfer,” Chai said.  

At the end of 2021, the total volume of foreign direct investment from Chinese companies totaled over US$2.7 trillion, surpassing the foreign investment China attracted, which amounted to US$2.6 trillion, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.  

“It’s a result of China’s deepening cross-border resource allocation and integration into the global economy,” Chai said.  

He admitted that non-economic factors, such as Sino-US relations, have forced their hand. “Some companies might not have planned to invest overseas in the short term. But they’ve had to speed up,” he noted.  

But he believes the current relocations are “healthy.” “There’s no large-scale transfer of supply chains away from China. Businesses offshoring are concentrated in the final assembly link. It’s hard to move links that involve many supporting industries,” Chai said.  

Even the low-technology clothing industry involves hundreds of moving parts. “In China one could source the required items from within 100 kilometers. But it’s hard for other countries. Such industrial concentrations take a long time,” Chai said.  

But there are inevitable convulsions. Zhang Qiang, a factory worker in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, said he has not had any weekend shifts since the start of 2023. In 2022, his company, a small link in the Apple chain, began to move production to Vietnam. His hourly wage, which is linked to the amount of orders, has dwindled. He had to take on other jobs, like express delivery on weekends, to keep his salary at the same level.  

“Some factories prefer hiring temporary workers who they can fire at a lower cost when orders are slack,” Zhang told NewsChina.  

Twists and Turns 
Chai believes it is important for SMEs to move offshore. He believes they can help complete China’s supply chain overseas, connecting the domestic and overseas markets.  

“If Chinese companies go out and get embedded into every corner of the world, it will be impossible to exclude China [from the core global value chain],” Zhu Xingbing said.  

But it is not easy. Plastics manufacturer Jin Gang told NewsChina that as Vietnam lacks equipment and support industries, they have to transport everything from China, which increases costs and reduces efficiency.  

“Usually, it takes 40 days to finish an order at home, but in Vietnam it takes 80 or even 90 days,” said Jin Gang. “The clients are not satisfied either way.”  

His products involve dozens of procedures, and it is not realistic to move them all to Vietnam, as they are short of skilled technicians, and efficiency tends to be lower at the beginning.  

Even though Vietnam is associated with low costs, Wang revealed production costs can actually be higher, particularly as startup costs include buying land, facilities and transporting equipment. Latecomers found the costs are even higher. “In 2018, one mu (667 square meters) of industrial park land cost around 200,000 yuan (US$28,082). The price quadrupled this year,” said Zhou Heng, manager of Dinghua Consulting Company in Vietnam. There is a shortage of factory facilities to rent.  

Jin Gang said some of his friends in the industry who went to Vietnam two years ago have since returned. “Some of the promised orders didn’t materialize. They had problems finding suppliers and managing local employees due to language and cultural barriers,” he said.  

But what he worries about most is policy uncertainty. He feels Vietnam plans to tighten requirements for foreign investment. “I originally planned only on assembling there as a stopgap. But we can see there will likely be increasing requirements over the localization of raw materials and workers. I’m considering the ramifications,” Jin Gang said.  

He revealed that he plans to focus more on cultivating the domestic market, so they can withdraw one day if it becomes necessary.  

Consultant Zhou Heng acknowledged it is hard in the early stages, particularly for those without overseas experience. “It’ll take a couple of years for them to get used to local policies and culture. But as long as they have orders, things will get better,” Zhou said. Some of his clients that came in 2018 developed quickly in Vietnam. “Now they’re investing in South America and Eastern Europe.”  

Zhu Xingbing, whose company was the first to manufacture paper shredders in Vietnam, told NewsChina their exports to the US doubled or even tripled in the past two years.  

In 2020, challenges rose as orders surged. The company struggled with the 800-strong Vietnamese workforce when Chinese managers could not leave China due to the Covid lockdown.  

“It isn’t cheaper than manufacturing in China and managing local workers is challenging,” Zhu said. However, he is happy to see his local employees are becoming more professional. “They’re very young and they keep growing and they are cooperative. I feel a sense of achievement seeing their growth. It’s a win-win situation,” Zhu said.  

He sees it is a good opportunity, for companies and for China. “If Chinese companies don’t relocate, and instead companies from other countries come to Vietnam and build the supply chain, we’ll just die at home. Now we’re building the chain overseas and purchasing parts from China, so we’re still supporting domestic industries.”  

Job seekers check posted want ads, Jiangsu Province, July 2023 (Photo by Xu Ming)

Workers take a shuttle bus to Luxshare, a supplier of Apple, Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, July 2023 (Photo by Xu Ming)

Pictured is a Foxconn factory, Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, July 2023 (Photo by Xu Ming)

Upstream Supplier 
The HSBC report published in January 2023 shows that emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are rising in the share of export destinations for China. Their imports of intermediate goods from China have been climbing since 2008, accounting for nearly 20 percent of their total intermediate goods imports in 2021. In Vietnam and South Korea, the share reached about one-third. Bilateral trade between China and ASEAN members has surpassed that between China and Europe and the US since 2020, Chinese data shows.  

Even though many companies manufacture overseas, they still have to buy a large proportion of raw materials, parts and equipment from China.  

The HSBC report said that global manufacturing continues to shift eastward. The market share of Southeast Asian countries in labor-intensive products is expanding, while China is becoming a supply center for higher-value parts.  

Chai believes that in the long run, offshoring will help enhance China’s cooperation with other Asian countries and regional economic integration, as well as with domestic industrial upgrading. “It will strengthen the cohesiveness of the supply chain in Asia as a whole and consolidate its important position in the chain. In the future, it might be time for ‘made in Asia,’” he said.  

He added that it is especially so since the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the world’s largest free trade agreement, took effect for all 15 members in June 2023. “It greatly facilitates cross-border trade and mutual investment within the region. China will be more closely linked with other countries in the supply chain,” Chai said.  

In practice, companies should pay greater attention to risks and adhering to international trade rules and local laws to avoid unnecessary losses, experts said. “Companies should avoid crowding any one field over a short period, which could cause homogenization and disordered competition. There could be more coordination among companies within an industry,” said Li Bingshu, secretary general of the China International Chamber of Commerce for the Private Sector.  

Zhu believes that it is important to make the world a real global village, where companies from any country can flow freely based on market needs.  

He is impressed with the success of TTI (Techtronic Industries), a multinational power tool manufacturer, which started in Dongguan in the 1980s making branded products for export. Now they have plants worldwide including Mexico and Vietnam. “This could be a chance for our company to take off too,” Zhu said. 

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