China’s updated climate targets mark a new chapter in controlling greenhouse gas emissions

The target is part of China’s new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a climate action plan that all countries subject to the 2015 Paris Agreement must submit to the UN every five years. On the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, the Climate Summit was a pivotal event for countries to submit their new NDCs. 　

In 2020, Xi pledged that China’s CO2 emissions would peak before 2030 and that the country would achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. 　

In addition to overall emissions reductions, Xi announced more pledges, including three quantitative and three qualitative goals. Specifically, China pledged to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its total energy consumption mix to over 30 percent, expand installed wind and solar power capacity to over six times the 2020 levels to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts, and to scale up the total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic meters. 　

Meanwhile, China will make new energy vehicles the mainstream in new vehicle sales, expand the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market to cover major high-emission sectors, and establish the fundamentals of a climate adaptive society. 　

Using the term “greenhouse-gas emissions” rather than CO2 emissions marks the first time China has announced a target that includes other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide. It is also the first time China announced a new climate target after the 2030 peak carbon aim. 　

According to data released by Carbon Brief, an international platform for climate science and policy, driven by a rapid growth in solar and wind power, as well as a drop in coal use and an increase in natural gas consumption, China’s CO2 emissions fell 1 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, extending the decline that started in March 2024, which has led many analysts to believe that China’s CO2 emissions may have already peaked. 

　

The Chinese government has already started to lay out the roadmap for its future work on climate. In August, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council released a guideline on establishing a national emissions trading system (ETS), which indicates a major shift from an intensity-based approach to absolute carbon caps. 　

China had previously adopted a system of “dual” carbon controls in its climate goals, which meant controlling the carbon intensity per unit of GDP and total carbon emissions. In 2021, China pledged to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. 　

With the expansion of the national ETS, China is moving toward absolute carbon caps. By 2027, the guideline aims to extend the coverage of the national ETS to cover all major industrial emitters including steel, cement and primary aluminum, three of the heaviest-emitting industries, and to build a cap-and-trade system “with a mix of allocation and auctioning, and a voluntary market that is credible, transparent, widely participatory and aligned with international standards.” 　

China’s ongoing work and new commitments to addressing climate change will help reshape its political dynamics and promote global climate governance by encouraging broader and more pragmatic cooperation.