In a likely response to US President Donald Trump’s October threat to pull the US out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, Russia said during Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel's recent visit to Moscow that it will consider recommissioning the Cuban Missile Base if the US does not change its mind. Writing for comment website opinion.china.com, Wei Jinshen, a researcher at the Center for Russian Studies, Shanghai International Studies University, said the chances of another Cuban missile crisis – as some are warning – are slim, but the disequilibrium in global strategic stability has long-term impacts.
The historical conditions that led to the Cuban missile crisis do not exist in today’s world, he said. The multi-polarization trend of international relations has constrained the arms race – especially nuclear arms race. Besides, the US is still the world’s military superpower, as no country – including Russia – has the comparable strength and status to challenge it, the researcher argued.
Russia, for its part, still adopts a defense-oriented nuclear arms strategy, even though the US's military facilities in Central and Eastern Europe threaten its strategic security, Wei noted. It does not have a plan to move missiles to Cuba, nor the wish to start a nuclear arms race, as the existing strategic stability can prevent the US from disrupting the balance and seeking an absolute nuclear advantage, which accords with Russia’s strategic security interests.
Still, there will be lasting impacts resulting from the disequilibrium of the international strategic stability system. If the INF treaty loses effect because of the US's withdrawal, increasing uncertainties will force both to develop new nuclear technologies and weapons, thereby likely triggering a new nuclear arms race. It will dampen US-Russia relations, adding to the long list of events that has caused their ties to deteriorate, including the Ukraine crisis and Western economic sanctions on Russia.
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